Geopolitics Just Cranked Up Your Threat Model, Again. Here’s What Cyber Pros Need to Know

If it feels like your entire cybersecurity program is once again operating on a geopolitical fault line, you're not imagining things.

The intersection of global politics and cybersecurity has grown a whole lot messier — and more consequential — in recent weeks. With the current U.S. Administration turning up the heat on China through aggressive tariffs and foreign policy pressure, the ripple effects on cybersecurity are no longer hypothetical. They’re here. And they’re accelerating.

Trade wars mean cyber wars

Let’s start with the obvious: the U.S.-China trade war. After the administration slapped 145% tariffs on key Chinese imports, Beijing didn’t just fume — they likely leveraged their extensive access to our infrastructure. Literally. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, Chinese officials quietly acknowledged involvement in attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure. The message? Cyber is the battlefield.

Cybersecurity advisor and author Tom Kellermann has said that attacks by the Chinese state-backed Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon operations have enabled infiltration of U.S. critical infrastructure. These intrusions could be leveraged today for intelligence in these times of escalating tensions as well as tomorrow for more destructive attacks if relations truly deteriorate. 

And increases in cyber activity exploiting U.S. tariff policies have been noted by BforeAI CEO Luigi Lenguito in the last few weeks, with criminals already engaging in invoice fraud and other scams involving shipping company impersonation.

This isn’t just state-on-state stuff. The private sector is feeling the pressure. A growing number of threat analysts are flagging a rise in industrial espionage and IP theft attempts, particularly targeting sectors tied to strategic national interests — energy, tech and semiconductors.

The private sector is carrying more of the cyber defense load

With the federal government currently reevaluating roles, budgets and security clearances across key cybersecurity agencies, more of the frontline burden is shifting to the private sector. This transition is happening just as geopolitical tensions are driving up the volume and sophistication of attacks.

Critical industries — like energy, finance, healthcare and manufacturing — are increasingly being targeted by state-aligned threat actors. These organizations are expected to maintain operational readiness, detect threats, and respond quickly.

For cybersecurity professionals, this shift means greater responsibility, higher stakes and a growing need for clarity around real risk. Now more than ever, visibility and proactive defense strategies are essential. Preventing an attack is so much more important, and actually cheaper, than cleaning up in the aftermath.

Your vendors are feeling it, too

The entire security ecosystem is absorbing the shockwaves from rapidly changing economic policy. Tariffs on Chinese-made chips and components are complicating hardware supply chains and raising costs across the board. Some cybersecurity vendors are bracing for delays and price hikes, which could mean you’re waiting longer (and paying more) for upgrades to critical infrastructure.

And yet — despite all of this — some U.S. companies are doubling down on their ties with China. A recent survey conducted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found that 70% of firms who responded plan to maintain or even increase engagement.

What you should be watching (and doing)

So, what does this mean for those of us on the front lines of cyber defense? Here are some recommendations for moving forward in these conflicted times:

• Build geopolitical risk into your threat models. These tensions aren’t going away — they’re now part of the everyday threat landscape.
• Pressure-test your supply chain visibility. Tariff-driven changes could leave you exposed to unvetted tech or delays that weaken your defenses.
• Track policy shifts like you would threat intel. What’s happening in Washington and abroad is directly shaping your risk profile. Avoid operational paralysis associated with government changes and instead double down on security to thwart learned helplessness.
• Advocate for the resources you need. If your leadership is second-guessing security investments, the headlines are your best argument.
• Routinely assess your posture management. The threat from both nation-state and cybercriminals will only increase over the next six to 12 months. Periodically measure your exposure to attack using a proven cybersecurity framework and tooling that measures compliance to the listed security controls.
• Take a proactive stance. Don’t wait for an alert to tell you something’s wrong. Implement an exposure management program to help you understand your real risk before attackers do, so you can take action before exposures become breaches.

Cybersecurity efforts are often reactive — teams scramble to respond to new cyber threats as they arise. In today’s world, reactive security is not only inadequate; it’s irresponsible, and it puts national security at risk. A proactive approach is what’s needed in these turbulent times. One in which organizations use accurate assessment of real-world risks to address the most critical vulnerabilities, misconfigurations and overprivileged identities before they can be used in an attack. The more unstable the geopolitical climate, the more essential it is to proactively reduce your organization’s exposure and bolster its proactive defenses.